Breast cancer rates rose by 300% between 1976 and 1992, but not because more people were getting cancer—it was because mammography could now diagnose cancer earlier.
Thank for this erudite discussion Doctor! As a physician myself (though retired), I appreciate the discussion and the review of statistical interpretation.
Andrea, good to see you back. If I read one more explanation about the health benefits of drinking raw milk I am going to scream. Or maybe have a Campylobacter episode.
Gunshots and MVAs are now the two leading causes of death below age 20 in the US. If, as you say, fewer die of trauma and injuries, are the absolute numbers down?
Data on worse health and longevity as they relate to unequal access (or at least to having insurance) appears to be mixed, counterintuitively.
I happened across a fact-laden, reasoned thread on X (I know, I know!) yesterday about a number of contributors to US longevity lagging behind peer nations.
Mammography remains a mixed blessing. 50% of women will have a false positive over 10 years requiring additional testing and/ or biopsy. Breast cancer deaths are definitely reduced but average longevity gains in screened populations are estimated to be less than 2 weeks.
We have some serious problems with science ang our evidence base, e.g. the replication crisis and a small amount of fraud with a smattering of researcher misconduct. This is NOT a reason to toss out science but it is a good reason to avoid headlines and hype. Work like the current article further that and provide a great framework for understanding.
I have written many times in the past six months in regard to the anti-vaxxers insistence that there is a literal “epidemic” of turbo cancers & other contrivances they have created to justify, among other other things, their pitifully expensive “detox” regimens. For another project, I have followed cancer data through the SEER program of the National Cancer Institute, and as you have correctly pointed out, cancer prevalence has literally been falling for both men & men for decades. While some researchers are charitable in describing the anti-vaxxers as “misusing” or “misapplying” the data, I have no problem openly accusing them of outright shamefully lying in order to further their own grift by promoting fear & confusion over the actual safety & efficacy of vaccines. I appreciate you addressing this issue on a much larger scale than I am ever able to address it.
Maxwell is so stinking cute! I am so glad he is in remission and doing well! I continue to appreciate your articles. You do an excellent job of sorting out empirically-supported data from the garbage. At a personal level, I am grateful that the colon screening age has been reduced to 45. That would have spared me a lot of headaches. Despite having almost all the symptoms of colon cancer when I was in my mid-40’s, my PCP kept insisting I was a hypochondriac. I found my way to a very astute gastroenterologist who immediately recognized concerning symptoms and scheduled me for a colonoscopy within days. I had a huge polyp that he initially thought was cancer, based on the size. Thankfully, it was pre-cancerous. I’m on the frequent flyer program, likely for life, but it beats the alternative! I’m grateful for early detection. We need to continue to advocate for this in every diagnostic area. (Footnote: I have a wonderful new PCP.)
Thank for this erudite discussion Doctor! As a physician myself (though retired), I appreciate the discussion and the review of statistical interpretation.
Andrea, good to see you back. If I read one more explanation about the health benefits of drinking raw milk I am going to scream. Or maybe have a Campylobacter episode.
A very good overview. TY.
A few quibbles and comments-
Gunshots and MVAs are now the two leading causes of death below age 20 in the US. If, as you say, fewer die of trauma and injuries, are the absolute numbers down?
Data on worse health and longevity as they relate to unequal access (or at least to having insurance) appears to be mixed, counterintuitively.
I happened across a fact-laden, reasoned thread on X (I know, I know!) yesterday about a number of contributors to US longevity lagging behind peer nations.
https://x.com/siimland/status/2050549355216863661?s=20
Mammography remains a mixed blessing. 50% of women will have a false positive over 10 years requiring additional testing and/ or biopsy. Breast cancer deaths are definitely reduced but average longevity gains in screened populations are estimated to be less than 2 weeks.
We have some serious problems with science ang our evidence base, e.g. the replication crisis and a small amount of fraud with a smattering of researcher misconduct. This is NOT a reason to toss out science but it is a good reason to avoid headlines and hype. Work like the current article further that and provide a great framework for understanding.
Thank you.
Thank you Andrea! So happy to hear about Maxwell!! Sending all the good vibes to him.
I have written many times in the past six months in regard to the anti-vaxxers insistence that there is a literal “epidemic” of turbo cancers & other contrivances they have created to justify, among other other things, their pitifully expensive “detox” regimens. For another project, I have followed cancer data through the SEER program of the National Cancer Institute, and as you have correctly pointed out, cancer prevalence has literally been falling for both men & men for decades. While some researchers are charitable in describing the anti-vaxxers as “misusing” or “misapplying” the data, I have no problem openly accusing them of outright shamefully lying in order to further their own grift by promoting fear & confusion over the actual safety & efficacy of vaccines. I appreciate you addressing this issue on a much larger scale than I am ever able to address it.
Maxwell is so stinking cute! I am so glad he is in remission and doing well! I continue to appreciate your articles. You do an excellent job of sorting out empirically-supported data from the garbage. At a personal level, I am grateful that the colon screening age has been reduced to 45. That would have spared me a lot of headaches. Despite having almost all the symptoms of colon cancer when I was in my mid-40’s, my PCP kept insisting I was a hypochondriac. I found my way to a very astute gastroenterologist who immediately recognized concerning symptoms and scheduled me for a colonoscopy within days. I had a huge polyp that he initially thought was cancer, based on the size. Thankfully, it was pre-cancerous. I’m on the frequent flyer program, likely for life, but it beats the alternative! I’m grateful for early detection. We need to continue to advocate for this in every diagnostic area. (Footnote: I have a wonderful new PCP.)